⚠ Realistic edge — size-aware fee model
Polymarket has zero trading fees; cost is gas (~$0.05 round-trip on Polygon, fixed) + ~0.18% slippage. Cost % shrinks as size grows. Below shows what each closed trade WOULD have made at different position sizes, applied to the same gross % return the market actually delivered.
High-spread cluster (entry ≤ 0.97) — REAL EDGE
— closed trades · avg gross —
| size | fee% | net PnL | $/trade | net% |
|---|
Snap-spread cluster (entry > 0.97) — BLOCKED by guardrail
— closed trades · avg gross — · negative-EV at every size
| size | fee% | net PnL | $/trade | net% |
|---|
⚠ Disputes seen in paper: 0. Strategy thesis depends on dispute rate <5% — sample too small to validate yet.